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美国汽车与汽车零部件:重启汽车之路

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美国汽车与汽车零部件:重启汽车之路

 

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 17 .

  R ocky

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 at

 lea st

 s om e

 g ov er nor s

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 easi ng

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 s om e

 s i gn s

 of g ree n

 s hoots

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 U . S .

 li gh t

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 pos t- l oc kdo w n

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 s om e poin t

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 Sup p ly

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 th i n k

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 th at

 i mpe d e

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 r amp

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 c om pl exity

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 th e

 s u p pl y

 c h ai n ,

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 s ta n c e

 of

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 key

 g ove r nor s

 tow ar d easi ng

 l ockdown s

 ( not

 w i th s ta nding

 Fe de ral

 gu i d eli n e s

 e n c ou r aging

 auto

 pr odu c ti on

 as a

 c riti c al

 ac ti v ity ) ,

 un c ertai n ty

 ar ou n d

 th e

 s ta tu s

 of

 M e xican

 pa r ts

 an d

 v e h i c le

 as s e mb ly plan ts ,

 th e

 pot e n tial

 at - ri sk

 h eal th

 s ta tu s

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 lea st

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 Th ree

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 th e

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 ( s o m e

 of

 w h i c h

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 b e

 m e t b y

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 l oan s

 to

 th e

 De t r oit

 Th ree ) .

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 D em a n d

 s id e

 h owev er

 bet t er

 t h a n

 fea r ed .

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 i s

 t r ac kin g

 to

 ~7 mn

 SAAR,

 b e tt er

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 had

 f eare d ,

 w i th

 th e n

 s om e

 poten tial

 i mpr ove m e n t

 i n

 c om i ng

 m on t h s

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 ad e pt

 at

 w e b - b ase d

 s ale s

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 c on ta c tle ss

 de li v ery . Ne v er th ele ss ,

 w e

 c on ti nu e

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 not

 e xpe c t

 a

 V -s hap e d

 re c ove ry

 for

 deman d

 un le ss

 a

 ‘ c as h for

 c l un k er s’

 pr og r am

 p r ovi d e s

 a

 boost

 ( w h i c h ,

 g i v e n

 th e

 s u pp ly

 c on s trai n ts ,

 m ay

 not happen

 as

 s oon

 a s

 s om e

 th i n k ) .

 

 F ed er a l

 r ole

 – c oor d ina t ion ,

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 ju s t

 ca s h .

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 abov e ,

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 s ee

 th ree

 areas

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  on

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 h e p

 di st re ss e d

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 ( likely

 b y

 w ay

 of

 th e

 O E M s )

 an d

 to

 w or k

 w i th

 s ta t e s ,

 M e xic o

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 Canad a

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 th e

 s u pp ly

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 s om e

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 W i th

 Ap ril

 SAAR

 tr ac kin g

 to

 7 . 3mn

 un i ts ,

 w e

 are

 i n c reasi ng ly

 c om for ta b le

 w i th

 ou r

 pr i or 2 Q 20

 e s ti m ate

 for

 U S

  s ale s

 ( 9 . 7

 mn

 SAAR) ,

 w h i c h

 w ou l d

 n ee d

 M ay

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 Ju n e

 to

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 un i ts .

  H ow e v er ,

 w e

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 NA

 pr od u c ti on

 du e

 to

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 u p

 de lay s . W e

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 2 Q

 NA

 p r odu c ti on

 dow n

 ~7 0 %

 (v s

 40 %

 pr i o r ) .

  FI GU R E

 1

 P ot en t ia l

 p a t h

 t o

 2Q 20 SA A R

 of 9.7mn

  S AA R

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 mn

 12.0 FI GU R E

 2

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 p r oduc t io n

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 r ev is ed

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 2020E

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 Pri o r

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 mn

 2.5 1.4 14.0

  12.2 y / y

 %

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 - 68 %

 - 14 %

 - 25 %

  Apr i l

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  Sour c e:

 B a r c la y s

 Resea r c h

 esti m ates

 Sour c e:

 B a r c la y s

 Resea r c h

 esti m ates

 9.8 7.3

  M or e ove r ,

 w e

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 fu r th er

 dow n s i d e

 ri sk

 to

 F

 an d

 G M

 pr odu c ti on ,

 as

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 G M

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 of

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 key

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 f a s ter

 ( M e xic o

 an d

 Ar li ngton

 TX )

 than

 c an

 For d.

 O v erall ,

 w e

 pr e f er

 s u pp lier s

 w h o

 are

 le ss

 e xpos e d

 to

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 D etr oit

 3

 an d

 mor e

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 to Ch i n a

 ( w h i c h

 i s

 re b ou nding ) ,

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 APTV

 on

 th e

 lar g er - c ap

 s i de

 ( ~2 3 %

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 e xpo s u re )

 an d Adi e n t

 on

 th e

 s m aller - c ap

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 ( 27 %

 D - 3 ,

 bu t

 w i th

 a

 lar g e

 Ch i n a

 bu s i n e ss

 an d

 ...

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