下面是小编为大家整理的对抗COVID-19大流行成本与权衡：发展中国家观点,供大家参考。
Research & Policy Briefs From the World Bank Malaysia Hub
No. 35
Costs and Trade-Of f s in the Fight against the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Developing Country Per spectiv e Norman V. Loayza May 15, 2020 The world is experiencing the worst pandemic crisis in one hundred years. By mid-April 2020, more than 80 percent of countries around the world had imposed strict containment and mitigation measures to control the spread of the disease. The economic fallout from the pandemic has been immense, with dire consequences for poverty and welfare, particularly in developing countries. This Brief fi rst documents the global economic contraction and its poten ti al impact on developing countries regarding macroeconomic performance, poverty rates, and incomes of the poor and vulnerable. It then argues that the pandemic crisis may hurt low- and middle-income countries disproportionately because most of them lack the resources and capacity to deal with a systemic shock of this nature. Their large informal sectors, limited fi scal space, and poor governance make developing countries particularly vulnerable to the pandemic and the measures to contain it. Next, the Brief reviews recent epidemiological and macroeconomic
modelling
and
evidence
on
the
costs
and
benef i ts
of
dif f erent
mitigation
and
suppression
strategies.
It
explores
how
these cost-benef i t considerations vary across countries at dif f erent income levels. The Brief argues that, having more limited resources and capabilities but
also
younger populations, developing countries
face
dif f erent trade-of f s
in
their
fi ght
against COVID-19
than advanced countries
do.
For developing countries, the challenge is preserving lives and avoiding crushed livelihoods. Dif f erent trade-of f s call for context-specif i c strategies. For countries with older populations and higher incomes, more radical suppression measures may be op ti mal; while for poorer, younger countries, more moderate measures may be best. Having dif f erent trade-of f s, however, provides no grounds for complacency for developing countries. The Brief concludes that the goal of saving lives and livelihoods is possible with economic and public health policies tailored to the reality of developing countries.
Since
“smart”
mitigation
strategies
(such
as
shielding
the
vulnerable
and
iden ti fying
and
isolating
the
infected)
pose
substan ti al challenges for implementation, a combination of ingenuity for adaptation, renewed ef f ort by national authorities, and support of the international community is needed. The lockdowns may be easing, but the fi ght against the pandemic has not been won yet. People and economies will remain vulnerable un ti l a vaccine or treatment are developed. The challenge in the next few months will be to revive the economy while mitigating new waves of infection.
The
Economic
Contraction
The
COVID-19
pandemic
has
thrown
the
world
into
its
worst
economic crisis
since
the
Great
Depression.
The
adverse
shock
fi rst
originated
in
the powerhouses
of
the
world
economy—China,
Europe,
and
the
United States.
It
has
quickly
propagated
throughout
the
globe.
Because
of
the pandemic,
the
world
economy
in
2020
is
projected
to
grow
6
to
7 percentage
points
lower
than
otherwise,
with
90
percent
of
countries experiencing
negative
growth
rates
(IMF
2020a).
The
sharp
contraction will
af f ect
most
aspects
of
economic
activity,
including
trade
and
labor. Global
trade
volume
is
expected
to
decline
between
13
and
32
percent
in 2020
(WTO
2020).
Global
labor,
measured
by
working
hours,
is
projected to
decrease
by
10.5
percent
in
the
second
quarter
of
2020,
a
decline equivalent
to
305
million
full-time
workers
(UN
2020).
For
developing
countries,
the
global
contraction
carries
a
large adverse
external
shock.
The
demand
for
exports
has
plummeted,
and merchandise
exports
are
expected
to
decline
in
2020
by
8
to
36
percent, depending
on
the
region
and
projection
scenario
(WTO
2020). Commodity
prices
are
declining
to
record
lows,
with
oil
and
metal
prices projected
to
drop
by
40
percent
and
13
percent,
respectively,
in
2020 (World
Bank
2020a).
International
tourism
(measured
by
tourist
arrivals and
tourism
receipts)
is
expected
to
decrease
by
20
to
30
percent
in
2020 (UNWTO
2020).
Remittances,
an
increasingly
important
source
of
income in
developing
countries,
may
suf f er
a
decline
of
about
20
percent
in
2020 (World
Bank
2020b).
External
fi nance
is
drying
up,
with
the
largest
capital outflow
from
developing
countries
ever
recorded
(more
than
US$80 billion
since
the
start
of
the
crisis)
and
spreads
on
sovereign
debt increasing
by
hundreds
of
basis
points
(IMF
2020a).
No
less
important,
the
pandemic
entails
a
large
domestic
shock
in developing
countries,
with
direct
costs
related
to
morbidity,
health
care, and
uncertainty;
and
indirect
costs
related
to
the
containment
and mitigation
measures
imposed
to
reduce
the
spread
of
the
disease,
such
as reduced
labor,
production
capacity,
and
productivity.
The
combined external
and
domestic
shocks
related
to
the
pandemic
will
produce
an unprecedented
systemic
contraction
in
GDP
growth
in
2020
throughout the
developing
world,
with
estimated
reductions
(relative
to
expectations
prior
to
the
pandemic)
of
about
-5
percentage
points
(pp)
in
emerging and
developing
Asia;
-8
pp
in
emerging
and
developing
Europe;
-7
pp
in Latin
America
and
the
Caribbean;
-6
pp
in
the
Middle
East
and
Central Asia;
and
-5
pp
in
Sub-Saharan
Africa
(IMF
2020a;
see
fi gure
1).
The
International
Monetary
Fund
(IMF),
in
its
April
2020
World Economic
Outlook,
warns
of
“severe
risks
of
a
worse
outcome”
(IMF 2020a).
The
growth
projections
cited
above
are
predicated
on
the condition
that
the
restrictions
imposed
to
contain
the
spread
of
the disease
are
concentrated
over
the
fi rst
half
of
the
year
(f i rst
quarter
for China
and
second
quarter
for
the
rest
of
the
world).
However,
if
the lockdowns
are
extended
by
50
percent
longer,
with
fi nancial
conditions becoming
tighter
and
fi scal
burdens
becoming
heavier,
world
GDP
growth in
2020
could
drop
an
additional
3
percentage
points.
This
severe scenario
would
imply
mass
unemployment,
fi rm
closures,
and
possibly debt
and
fi nancial
crises.
The
dislocation
implied
by
such
a
large contraction
would
extend
well
beyond
2020,
making
the
recovery
in subsequent
years
weak
and
volatile.
The
Impact
on
Poverty
The
pandemic
crisis
is
bound
to
have
an
impact
on
poverty.
Conservative estimates
suggest
that
the
economic
contraction
will
push
48
million
to
135
million
of
people
to
poverty
worldwide,
with
the
estimates depending
on
the
poverty
line
used
(48
million
new
poor,
using
the
$1.90/day
poverty
line
for
all
countries;
and
135
million
new
poor,
using
$1.90/day
for
low-income,
$3.20/day
for
lower-middle
income,
and
$5.50/day
for
upper-middle
income
countries).
This
will
make
2020
the fi rst
year
since
1998
that
the
global
rate
of
poverty
will
increase
(Mahler et
al.
2020;
World
Bank
2020c).
If
inequality
were
to
rise,
the
poverty
impact
of
the
economic contraction
would
be
much
worse.
For
instance,
if
the
Gini
coef f i cient increases
by
2
percent
in
all
countries,
the
number
of
poor
would
rise
by 83
million
to
200
million
people
(with
the
larger
estimate
allowing
for dif f erent
poverty
lines
across
income
groups)
(see
table
1
and
fi gure
2).
If the
risks
of
a
worse
growth
contraction
materialize,
the
numbers
of
poor could
increase
by
an
additional
70
percent.
Af f i l iation:
Development
Research
Group,
World
Bank.
Acknowledgement:
Valuable
direct
inputs
were
provided
by
Daniel
Gerszon
Mahler
and
Christoph
Lakner
(on
poverty
measures);
Patrick
Walker
(on
epidemiological
projections); Young
Eun
Kim
(on
mortality
st atistics
and
economic
loss);
Roberto
F att al-Jaef,
Tatjana
Kleineberg,
and
Rishabh
Sinha
(on
macroeconomic
modelling);
Roberto
Chang,
Aart
Kraay, Steven
Pennings,
and
Firas
Raad
(detailed
comments);
and
Nurlina
Shaharuddin
and
Izz ati
Ab
Razak
(general
research
assistance).
Criti cisms,
insights,
and
sugges tions
were
given by
Zack
Barne tt -Howell,
Damien
de
Walque,
Asli
Demirgüç-Kunt,
Gabriel
Demombynes,
Francisco
Ferreira,
Jed
Friedman,
Jorge
Luis
Guzman,
Felipe
Jaramillo,
Stuti
Khemani,
Bill Maloney,
Aaditya
Matt oo,
Mushf i q
Mobarak,
Apurva
Sanghi,
Sergio
Schmukler,
and
David
Wilson.
Nancy
Morrison
provided
excellent
editorial
assistance.
Objective
and
disclaimer:
Research
&
Policy
Briefs
synthesize
exis ting
research
and
data
to
shed
light
on
a
useful
and
interes ting
ques tion
for
policy
debate.
Research
&
Policy
Briefs carry
the
names
of
the
authors
and
should
be
cited
accordingly.
The
fi ndings,
interpret ations,
and
conclusions
are
en tire ly
those
of
the
authors.
They
do
not
necessarily
represent the
views
of
the
World
Bank
Group,
its
Exe cutive
Directors,
or
the
governments
they
represent.
Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
Source:
Prepared
by
Loayza
and
Shaharuddin
based
on
data
provided
by Christoph
Lakner
and
Daniel
Gerszon
Mahler
from
PovcalNet
...