澳大利亚能源业：反映油价走低现实【优秀范文】

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　Australian

　Energy

　Reflecting

　the

　reality

　lower

　oil

　prices

　Asia Pacific Equity Research 17

　March

　2020

　reflect

　the

　current

　global

　environment,

　have

　materially

　lowered

　oil price estimates which has had a significant impact on earnings, free cash flow and valuation. Spot oil prices suggest potentially further downside risk, but we do not believe

　US$30/bbl Brent is sustainable. Overall, we see the sector as attractive

　for

　investors

　looking

　for

　long-term

　returns

　but

　note

　potential

　for further

　downside

　near-term.

　With

　value

　everywhere,

　believe

　companies with strong balance sheets and limited growth should be the priority.  Lowering

　oil

　price

　forecasts;

　increasing

　WACC

　estimates:

　Brent

　oil prices reached a 16-year low of US$30/bbl with global demand likely to be materially

　impacted

　economic

　turmoil;

　and

　OPEC+

　failing

　extend production

　cuts.

　With

　E&P

　companies

　signaling

　growth

　capex

　will

　be curtailed,

　clear

　current

　prices

　are

　unsustainable.

　Using

　our

　normal methodology

　and

　noting

　the

　forward

　curve

　now

　contango,

　have lowered our price forecasts to US$42/bbl in CY20 and US$45/bbl in CY21. We

　have

　also

　increased

　WACC

　estimates

　for

　our

　coverage

　universe

　to account for increased balance sheet, free cash flow and earnings risk.  Sector

　looks

　attractive

　valuation

　but

　stocks

　could

　derate

　further near-term: On average, the sector is trading at a P/NPV of only 0.57x using our base-case price

　forecasts and

　new WACC"s. However, running spot to perpetuity challenges value entirely and therefore the longer

　prices remain weak, the further stocks could derate near-term. We believe there could be significant

　returns

　investors

　taking

　long-term

　view

　the

　sector

　and recommend a broad stock exposure rather than necessarily being specific.  Prioritising balance sheet strength over value: Our sector preferences are based on those with strong balance sheets. In the big caps, our preference is: 1) Santos;

　Beach;

　Origin;

　Oil

　Search,

　and

　Woodside.

　With

　the smaller

　caps,

　our

　preference

　is:

　Senex;

　Cooper;

　and

　Carnarvon. Acknowledging all three have upside to value, we are Neutral on Woodside, Oil Search and Carnarvon only because of preferences elsewhere.  Worley’s

　investment

　case

　has

　been

　challenged:

　Our

　positive disposition

　Worley

　was

　that

　Global

　E&P

　capex

　was

　improving.

　The current situation has materially challenged that view, and is likely to have a material impact on earnings forecasts and valuation. Equity

　Ratings

　and

　Price

　Targets

　Australia

　Energy

　Utilities Mark

　Busuttil

　AC (61-2)

　9003-8619

　mark.busuttil@jpmorgan.com

　Bloomberg

　JPMA

　BUSUTTIL

　<GO>

　Jimmy

　Zeng

　(61-2)

　9003

　6017

　jimmy.zeng@jpmorgan.com

　J.P.

　Morgan

　Securities

　Australia

　Limited

　Company

　 Ticker

　Mkt

　Cap (A$

　mn)

　 Price

　(A$)

　 RatiCur

　 Cur

　Price

　TarEnd Date

　get

　 End Date

　Beach

　Energy

　BPT

　2,725.57

　1.20

　2.15

　Dec-20

　2.45

　n/c

　Carnarvon

　Petroleum

　CVN

　214.58

　0.15

　0.39

　Dec-20

　0.47

　n/c

　Cooper

　Energy

　COE

　707.59

　0.44

　n/c

　0.60

　Dec-20

　0.64

　n/c

　Oil

　OSH

　4,040.58

　2.65

　3.65

　Dec-20

　7.20

　n/c

　Origin

　Energy

　ORG

　8,989.86

　5.14

　n/c

　7.50

　Dec-20

　9.25

　n/c

　Santos

　STO

　7,436.66

　3.57

　n/c

　7.60

　Dec-20

　9.20

　n/c

　Senex

　Energy

　Limited

　SXY

　254.92

　0.18

　n/c

　0.34

　Dec-20

　0.38

　n/c

　Woodside

　Petroleum

　WPL

　17,809.22

　18.90

　24.00

　Dec-20

　40.20

　n/c

　WorleyParsons

　WOR

　3,741.58

　7.19

　8.30

　Dec-20

　17.60

　n/c

　Source:

　Company

　data,

　Bloomberg,

　J.P.

　Morgan

　estimates.

　n/c

　change.

　All

　prices

　Mar

　20.

　See page 41 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com

　Lowering near-term oil price forecasts In line with our methodology of using the Brent forward curve (to the closest US$5/bbl) for our near-term commodity price forecasts, we have lowered our estimates to US$42/bbl in CY2020 and US$45/bbl in CY2021 as shown below. Figure 1: Historical and forecast Brent price [US$/bbl] 80 New

　 Old 70

　30 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

　Source:

　J.P.

　Morgan

　We note the change in oil price has been more significant at the short-end of the forward curve.

　The Brent curve is now in contango for the first time in several years. Figure 2: Brent forward curve [US$/bbl] 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25 Source:

　J.P.

　Morgan

　We would also highlight that commodity price weakness has resulted in materially softer currency which has an offsetting impact on the Australian producers. Figure 3: Australian dollar forward curve [x] 72

　60 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-23 Source:

　J.P.

　Morgan

　 Sep-19

　Dec-19 Mar-20

　Sep-19

　Dec-19 Mar-20

　Increasing WACC estimates to account for increased cash flow risk As shown in Figure 1 previously, the changes to our forecast price series is relatively short-term (ie. between 2020 and 2023) and therefore notwithstanding anything else the impact on valuation should be relatively modest.

　However, this does not account for increased risk around balance sheets and cash flows.

　We discuss each company’s cash flows individually from page 7, but we have made changes to our WACC estimates to account for balance sheet risks. Firstly we have increased our Equity Risk Premium from 5.0% to 5.5%. We have also made company specific changes as follows:

　 Woodside:

　We estimate gearing peaking at 43% by CY2023 with the company needing to fund the Scarborough, Pluto Train 2 and Browse projects as well as Sangomar in Senegal. Weak asset prices could also hamper the ability to sell down Pluto Train 2 and/or Scarborough but this is not factored into our modelling.

　Overall, we have raised our cost of debt assumption to 7.0% and our cost of equity to 9.0% resulting in our WACC increasing from 6.8% to 8.8%. We have also lowered our risk weights to 40% for Browse, 60% for Scarborough, 30% for Myanmar, and 70% for Senegal.

　 Oil Search:

　At this stage we have not incorporated any delays into the PNG LNG expansion project with first gas in 2026.

　The issues in finalizing the gas agreement could be a benefit for the company given the positive implications on the balance sheet. We estimate gearing peaking at 56% by CY2023.

　Overall, we have raised our cost of debt assumption to 7.0% and our cost of equity to 9.0% resulting in our WACC increasing from 7.1% to 9.1%. We have also lowered our risk-weights to 25% for PNG LNG Expansion and 30% for Nanushuk.

　 Santos:

　Santos" key growth plans include the Barossa Caldita backfill project through Darwin LNG and Dorado as well as additional capital in the Cooper Basin and GLNG. We estimate gearing peaking at 43% by CY2023.

　Overall, we have raised our cost of debt assumption to 7.0% and our cost of equity to 8.0% resulting in our WACC increasing from 6.5% to 7.6%.

　 Beach:

　Beach has the strongest balance sheet of our coverage universe with A$65 million in net cash reported in December 2019. The company does have commitments for growth in the Otway Basin particularly, but we still see good debt metrics going forward.

　Overall, we have not changed our cost of debt assumptions for Beach. The lower ERP means our WACC increases from 7.2% to 7.7%.

　 Origin Energy:

　Origin"s balance sheet is within the company’s specified debt measures. The company also has the benefit of limited growth commitments and

　New Old 10.16% 8.38% 8.77% 9.07% 9.10% 7.61% 7.69%

　6.88%

　 more security of cash flows from the Utilities business. We estimate gearing peaking at 29% by FY2020.

　Overall, we have raised our cost of debt assumption marginally to 6.0% with our cost of equity increasing to 9.1% resulting in a WACC of 6.9%.

　 Senex:

　Senex is expected to become cash flow positive by the September 2020 quarter and (as noted in its recent investor day), has limited exposure to lower oil prices. We estimate gearing peaking at 13% by FY2020.

　Overall, we have modestly raised our cost of debt assumption to 5.0% and our cost of equity to 11.3% resulting in our WACC estimate increasing from 8.2% to 9.1%.

　 Carnarvon Petroleum:

　Carnarvon has limited exposure to near-term oil prices with first production from Dorado not expected until 2024. However, as we have noted in the past, the company may need additional capital to fund its share of capex beyond 2021. We estimate gearing peaking at 69% by FY2023.

　Overall, we have raised our cost of debt assumption to 8.0% and our cost of equity to 11.9% resulting in our WACC estimate increasing from 7.6% to 10.2%.

　 Cooper Energy:

　Cooper Energy announced that first gas from the Sole project was achieved in early March 2020. The company still has a number of organic growth projects including the Annie field development as part of the Otway Phase-3 Development Project (OP3D). We estimate gearing peaking at 16% by FY2020.

　Overall, we have raised our cost of debt assumption to 7.0% and our cost of equity to 9.7% resulting in our WACC estimate increasing from 7.1% to 8.4%.

　Figure 4: Comparison of our new and old WACC estimates 12.00% 10.00%

　8.00%

　6.00%

　4.00%

　2.00%

　0.00%

　ORG

　STO

　BPT

　COE

　WPL

　SXY

　OSH

　CVN Source:

　J.P.

　Morgan

　estimates.

　Impact of lower prices on near-term earnings is material Running our updated price forecast in our modelling sees material downgrades to earnings estimates as shown below. We note that the price series was implemented through our Senex model previously.

　Table 1: Changes to earnings estimates and valuation (Priced at 16 March 2020)

　 Price

　NPV

　Dec-20

　 2020

　NPAT 2021

　 2022

　 2020

　Gearing 2021

　 2022...

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