下面是小编为大家整理的美国软件业：第二季度非周期收益指南（全文）,供大家参考。
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Re
C OR E
U.S.
So ftwar e
The
Q 2
Off - C yc le
Earnings
Guide
Q2
B ea t s
L oo k
L i kel y ,
2H
G u i d a n c e
a nd
P i pe li n e
Commenta ry
the
W il d c a rd :
W e e xpe c t
m os t
of
ou r
of f - c y c le
n ame s
to
b eat
Q 2
e xp e c tati on s ,
g i v e n
th e
al r e ad y
p r u de n t
I NDU S T RY
UPD A T E
U . S .
S o f t w a r e PO SI TI V E Unc hang e d
E qu ity
R e s ear c h
24
A ug us t
2020
gu i da n c e
f r om
m an age m e n t
t eams.
H owe v e r ,
th i s
i s
lar g el y
pr i c e d
i n
an d
f or w ar d - l ook i ng
2 H
e xpe c tati on s
an d
pipe li n e
c om m e n ta ry
are
w h e r e
r ubb e r
will
m ee t
th e
r oad . T h at ’ s
w h e r e
w e
s ee
m or e
di v e r g e n t
s e tups ,
an d
f av or
n ame s
s u c h
as
M DB ,
VMW , W O RK ,
an d
PL AN
w i th
c on s e r v ati v e
2 H
e xpe c ta t i on s
an d
a r e
m or e
c au ti ou s
on
n ame s atta c h e d
to
a
tough e r
s p e n di ng
e n v i r on m e n t,
s u c h
as
WDAY
a n d
C O U P.
N am es
W e
L i k e
i nto
the
P ri n t:
M o ng o D B
( OW )
–
A
c on s e r v ati v e
Q 2
s e tu p
( 3 %
q / q
de c li n e
v s .
h i s tor i c al
ave r ag e
of 15 %
g r owt h )
i s
c ou pl e d
w i th
pr og r e ss i v el y
easie r
2 H
c om ps
( 48 %
2 H
g r owt h
las t y ear
v s .
72 %
1 H )
an d
m ode st
m i d - tee n s
Str ee t
g r owt h
ex pe c tati on s
f or
2 H .
W e e xpe c t
m an age m e n t
to
r ai s e
F Y
gu i de
m or e
than
th e
b eat
th i s
qu arte r ,
w h i c h
s h ou l d allay
i n v e s tor
c on c e r n s
a r ou n d
an
i n c r e m e n tal
C OV I D - 19
i m pa c t
( r e s u lte d
i n
r an g e - b ou n d
pe r f or m an c e
s i n c e
Q 1 )
an d
b r i ng
b ac k
pos iti v e
m om e n tu m
i n
th e
s h are s .
V M ware
( OW )
–
W e
e xpe c t
a
m e an
r e v e r s i on
tr ad e
pos t
pos iti v e
Q 2
r e s u l ts
a f t e r
t h e un de r pe r f or m an c e
Y TD
( dow n
9 %
v s .
S & P
u p
5 %) .
Se qu e n tial
g r owt h
s e tups
f or both
Q 2
( 6 . 5 %
pr odu c t
r e v e nu e
q / q
g r o w th
v s .
14 . 9 %
h i s tor i c al
ave r age
an d
2 . 5 % tota l
r e v e nu e
q / q
g r owt h
v s .
7 . 7 %
h i s tor i c al
ave r age ) ,
an d
m or e
i m por t an tl y
Q 3 ( e xpe c tati on s
of
a
s e qu e n tial
de c li n e
v s .
1 . 1 %
h i s tor i c al
g r owt h
ave r ag e ) ,
lea v e h eal th y
ro om
to
b eat .
M an age m e n t
c om m e n ta ry
o n
th e
r e c e n t
n e w s
ar ou n d
a pote n tial
s pi n - of f
f r om
De ll
c a n
al s o
dr i v e
i n c r e m e n tal
bu y e r s
an d
lea d
to
a
g r ad u al mu lti pl e
e xp an s i on
i n
ou r
v ie w .
Sl a c k
( OW )
–
C on s e n s u s
i s
l ook i ng
f or
Q 2
b illi ng s
g r owt h
of
33 % ,
c om pa r e d
to
th e 48 %
ave r age
( pr of or m a
f or
on e - ti m e
i t e m s )
Sl ac k
h as
p os te d
o v e r
th e
pa st
5 qu arte r s .
E xp e c tati on s
r an
ah e ad
of
th e m s el v e s
la st
qu ar t e r
a n d
r i s i ng
s h or t
i n te r e st i n di c ate s
th at
s om e
i n v e s tor s
a r e
n e g ati v e
h e ad e d
i nto
Q 2
as
w ell .
Ho w e v e r ,
th e
s e t- u p
i nto
th e
qu arte r
an d
fun da m e n tal s
ar ou n d
th e
c om pa n y
don ’ t
m at c h
th e n e g ati v e
s e n ti m e n t.
Other
P o i n ts
o f
I n te rest :
A n a p la n
h ad
s om e
exe c u ti on
i ss u e s
las t
qu arte r
th at
s h ou l d b e
c or r e c te d .
C on s e n s u s
l ook i ng
f or
l ow
dou b le - di g i t
b illi ng s
g r owt h
ove r
th e
n ext
two qu arte r s ,
v e r s u s
h i s tor i c al
g r o w th
r ate s
of
+20 %
an d
NRR
of
+12 0 % ,
i m pl y i ng
t h at s e n ti m e n t
i s
too
w e ak.
C ou p a ’s
c on s e n s u s
b illi ng s
of
+33 %
s e qu e n tial
g r owt h ( ad j u s te d)
v s .
a
h i s tor i c al
ave r age
of
+38 % ,
g i v e s
th e
c om pa n y
li m ite d
b r eat h i ng
r oom to
b eat .
Th e
s toc k
i s
u p
106 %
Y TD
(v s .
S& P
at
+5% )
an d
v al u ati on
c l os e
to
40 x
C Y 21 r e v e nu e
leave s
li tt le
r oom
f or
e rr o r .
W or kda y
h as
an
ea s y
s e t- u p
i n
Q 2
( +10 %
b illi ng s g r owt h ) ,
bu t
c on s e n s u s
i s
m ode li ng
f or
Q 3
( +13 % )
an d
Q 4
( +15 )
to
ac c ele r ate ,
w h i c h c ou l d
b e
tough
as
e n te r p r i s e
c u s tom e r s
r i gh t-s i ze
s ub s c r i b e r
c ou n t
i n
th e
2 H
of
th e
y ea r du e
to
p e r s i s te n tl y
h i gh
un e m ploy m e n t
r ate s .
Fo r
a
ful l
list
o f
o ur
r ati ng s ,
p r i c e
tar g et
and ear ni ng s
c hang es
i n
t hi s
r e p o r t ,
p lease
see t ab le
o n
p ag e
2 .
U . S .
S o f t w a r e
R a im o
Le nsc ho w ,
C FA
+ 1
212
526
2712
r ai m o . le ns c how@ba r c la y s . c o m BC I ,
US
M o hi t
Go g ia
+ 1
212
526
1053
m o hi t . g o g i a@b ar c l ay s . c o m BC I ,
US
P r ee
Gad e y
+ 1
212
526
3156
p r ee . g a d e y @ b a r c la y s . c o m BC I ,
US
Frank
S ur a c e
+ 1
212
526 - 5143
frank . s u r ac e @ b ar c l ay s . c o m BC I ,
US
B a r c la y s
C a p i t al
I n c .
a n d / o r
o n e
o f
i ts
a ff ilia t e s
d o e s
a n d
s ee ks
t o
d o
bu s i n e ss
w i t h c o m p a n ie s
c o v e r e d
i n
i ts
r e s ea r c h
r e p o r ts .
A s
a
r e s u l t ,
i n v e st o r s
s h o u l d
b e
a w a r e
t h a t
t h e f i r m
m a y
h a v e
a
c o nf li c t
o f
i n t e r e st
t h a t
c o u l d
a ff e c t
t h e
o b j e c t i v i t y
o f
t h i s
r e p o r t .
I n v e st o r s s h o u l d
c o n s i d e r
t h i s
r e p o r t
a s
o n l y
a
s i ng le
f a c t o r
i n
m a k i ng
t h ei r
i n v e st m e n t
d e c i s i o n .
P L E A S E
S EE
A N A L Y S T
C E R T I F I C A T I O N ( S )
A ND
I M PO R T A N T
D I S C L O S U R E S
BE G I NN I N G
O N
P A G E
39 .
Sum m a r y
of our
R a t ing s ,
P r ic e
T a r get s
a n d
E a r n ing s
C h a n ge s
in
t h i s
R ep or t
( a ll
c h a n ges
a r e
s h own
in
bold )
C o mp a n y
R a ti ng
Old
Ne w
P ric e
20 - A ug - 20
Old
P ric e
T a rg e t
Ne w
% C hg
Old
E P S
F Y 1
( E )
Ne w
% C hg
Old
E P S
F Y 2
( E )
Ne w
% C hg
U . S .
S o f twa r e
P o s
P o s
A nap l an ,
I nc .
( P L A N )
EW
EW
48 . 09
41 . 00
45 . 00
10
- 0 . 43
- 0 . 43
-
- 0 . 43
- 0 . 43
-
D es c a r tes
S y ste m s
G r o up
( D S GX )
EW
EW
57 . 72
36 . 00
54 . 00
50
0 . 51
0 . 51
-
0 . 67
0 . 67
-
E lasti c
N . V .
(E S T C )
OW
OW
106 . 98
108 . 00
12 0. 00
11
- 0 . 94
- 0 . 94
-
- 0 . 72
- 0 . 72
-
S ales fo r c e . c o m
I nc .
( C RM )
OW
OW
209 . 51
190 . 00
23 5. 00
24
2 . 95
2 . 95
-
3 . 67
3 . 67
-
So ur c e:
B a r c l a y s
R esear c h.
Share
p ri c es
a nd
ta r g e t
p ri c es
a re
sh o wn
i n
t he
p ri m a r y
li st i ng
c u rr ency
a nd
E P S
es t i m at es
a re
s ho wn
i n
t he
r ep o r t i n g
c u rr ency . F Y 1 (E) :
Cu rr en t
f i s c a l
y ear
es t i m at es
b y
B a r c l a y s
R esear c h .
F Y 2 (E) :
N ex t
f i s c a l
y e a r
es t i m at es
b y
B a r c l a y s
R esear c h .
St o c k
R at i n g :
OW :
O ver we i g h t ;
E W :
E q u a l
W ei g h t ;
UW :
Und er weig h t ;
R S :
R at i ng
Sus p end e d Ind us t r y
V ie w:
P o s :
P o s i t ive ;
N eu :
N eut r a l ;
N e g :
N e g at i v e
C ON TEN TS
E A RNING S
CA LENDA R
..................................................... 4
V A LU A TIO N
................................................................. 5
A NAPLA N
(EW /POS ,
PT
$45 )
............................................. 6
CLOUD E RA
(EW /POS ,
PT
$10 )
........................................... 7
COU PA
(EW /POS ,
PT
$2 50)
............................................... 8
D E S CA RT E S
S YS TEMS
(E W/ POS ,
PT
$54 )
............................... 9
E LA S TIC
(OW/POS ,
PT
$120)
........................................... 10
MO NG OD B
( OW/P OS ,
PT
$280 )
....................................... 11
S A LES FO R CE
(OW/POS ,
PT
$235 )
..................................... 12
S LA CK
(OW/POS ,
PT
$3 8)
............................................... 14
S PLU NK
(OW/POS ,
PT
$ 245)
........................................... 15
V MWA RE
(OW/POS ,
PT
$175 )
......................................... 16
WORKD A Y
(EW /POS ,
PT
$162 )
........................................ 18
V A R
S URV EY
.............................................................. 19
EARN I N GS
C A L E N D AR
FI G U R E
1
Q 2
O ff - C y c le
E a r n ing s
C a lend a r
M o nd a y
T u es d a y
W ed n es d a y
T hu r s d a y
F r i d a y
24 - Au g
25 - Au g
C R M
E a r n i ng s I N T U
E a r n i ng s
26 - Au g
PL AN
E a r n i ng s S PL K
E a r n i ng s E S T C
E a r n i ng s
27 - Au g
V M W
E a r n i ng s W D AY
E a r n i ng s
28 - Au g
31 - Au g
1 - S ep
2 - S ep
C L D R
E a r n i ng s M D B
E a r n i ng s
3 - S ep
4 - S ep
7 - S ep
8 - S ep
C O U P
E a r n i ng s W O R K
E a r n i ng s
9 - S ep
D S G X
E a r n i ng s
10 - S ep
11 - S ep
14 - S ep
15 - S ep
16 - S ep
17 - S ep
18 - S ep
So ur c e:
B l oo m b er g ,
B a r c l a y s
R esear c h
VALU A TIO N
FI G U R E
2
V a lua t ion
T a ble
C a t e g o r y
C o m pa ny
R a t i ng
C u rr e nt pr i c e
P r i c e t a r g e t
M a r k e t
C a p US D ($ ,m n)
2020E P / E
2021E
2020E E V / S a l e s
2021E
2020E E V / F C F
2021E L a r g e
ca p
I n tu i t
RS
322 . 23
N /A
87 , 398
N /A
N /A
N /A
N /A
N /A
N /A
M i c r o s o f t
OW
213 . 02
234
1 , 629 , 603
34 . 8 x
30 . 3 x
10 . 4 x
9 . 3 x
32 . 7 x
28 . 6 x
O r a c le
EW
55 . 19
50
174 , 511
13 . 8 x
12 . 6 x
5 . 2 x
5 . 0 x
14 . 4 x
12 . 8 x
S AP
OW
160 . 31
180
191 , 410 ...
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