下面是小编为大家整理的TMT行业：5G驱动电信光模块市场重回增长,供大家参考。
Driven by 5G Construction, the Telecom-Optical Transceiver Market Will Return to Growth
TMT 02/12/2020
Analyst
Zhang Yidong zhangyd@xyzq.com.cn SFC: BIS749 SAC: S0190510110012
Hong Jiajun hongjiajun@xyzq.com.cn SAC：S0190510110012
Liu Jie liujie91@xyzq.com.cn SAC：S0190119030006
Drive
by 5G
construction, the worldwide
telecom optical
transceiver
market will reach 4.6
bn USD in 2023, with a 2019-23 CAGR of 11.5%. According to the
prediction
by
LightCounting, worldwide 4G
construction
slowed
down which led to the decrease of telecom optical transceiver
with a decrease of 11.7%/3.3% in 2017/18. With the construction of 5G, the market will return to growth and would reach 4.6 bn in 2023 with a 5-year CAGR of 11.5%. We predict that by 2021 Chinese telecom-optical transceiver market will be 15.8 Bn CNY with a 2019-21 CAGR of 15.3%. According to the prediction by LightCounting Chinese telecom-optical transceiver market will be 1.7
bn
USD
in
2019.
We
estimated
that
driven
by
5G,
Chinese
telecom-optical
transceiver market will be 2.27 bn
USD (about 15.8 bn
CNY) in
2021, with
3-year CAGR
of 15.3%
and 5G product takes about 43.6%, among which 25G fronthaul optical transceiver will take 76.2% and shipment in 2021 will be 176.6 mn with a the market size of 5.26 bn CNY. With
accelerated
integration
of
overseas
leading
companies,
the
CR5
approaches
50%. Meanwhile, they gradually stripped off the assembly business to maintain a stable profit margin. The overseas optical communication leading companies started to expand their product line and customers by mergence. The industrial CR5 increased from 40.7% in 2016 to 45.9% in 2018. We predicted
that
it
will
be
about
50%
in
2019.
Besides,
due
to
the
large
fluctuation
of
optical transceiver
price, the leading companies
gradually stripped
off the assembly business and
are willing to master the production of optical chips to maintain a stable profit margin. Centralized procurement of domestic telecom operators will be a quantity-exchange-lower price strategy and propose challenge on cost control ability of vendors, which the head manufacturers will increase their profit space. Domestic
telecom
operators
will
purchase
the
optical
transceiver
through
centralized procurement
(we predicted
will
be 50%),
which will
save
the
price
difference
of intermediate link。However, for suppliers the price may be low but volume will be quite large and the leading vendors have cost advantage which will increase their profit space. For some vendors who only supplied
single
main
equipment
manufacture,
the
total
market
will
be
larger
and
it
will experience
marginal
improvement
with
larger
centralized
procurement.
Besides,
some companies
such
as
O-net
are
now
shipping
samples
or
small-scale
production
of
25G
optical chips. With their integration of upper stream, the profit margin will increase. Recommendations: 1) Lumentum stripped off assembly business and focused on optical chips production, which will help it increase the profit margin of optical transceiver business. Besides, the VCSEL products will become a new driver with the enlargement of 3D sensing. 2) O-net have low-end optical chip production ability and will have breakthrough with 25G optical chip. With their business extension to upper stream, their profit margin will increase. 3) ZTE is the main equipment manufacture can will directly benefit from 5G construction. 4) YOFC is the leading company in optical fiber preform and with the 5G construction, the demand for optical fiber and cables will increase and the industry will return to grow. Potential risks: 1) the production price may drop due to the severe market competition; 2) 5G construction is lower than expected; 3) the central procurement of telecom-operators is lower than expected; 4) the industry has huge revolution. Contact Overweight （ Maintained ）
目 录 1、5G 驱动电信光模块重回增长，2023 年有望达到 46 亿美元，中国市场 2021 年达到巅峰 158 亿元人民币 ....................................................................................... .- 6 - 1.1、光模块市场规模 67 亿美元，光芯片占据 50%成本.................................- 6 - 1.2、5G 建设将拉动国内电信用光模块需求，2021 年有望达到 158 亿元人民币 ................................................................................................................................- 8 - 2、光模块的规格和数量取决于应用场景 ............................................................- 10 - 2.1、不同场景下，TOSA/ROSA 种类不同 ......................................................- 10 - 2.2、电信网络：从接入网到骨干网，所需光模块数量逐步减少，速率逐步提升 ..............................................................................................................................- 12 - 2.3、5G 将带来规格和数量的提升....................................................................- 18 - 3、行业技术格局尚且稳定，中国即将开启运营商集采.....................................- 22 - 3.1、硅光技术尚未成熟，无法大规模应用，行业技术格局尚且稳定..........- 22 - 3.2、运营商集采有望开启，部分厂商或有边际改善......................................- 23 - 4、全球龙头频繁整合与剥离，暂时掌控光芯片环节.........................................- 25 - 4.1、龙头加速整合提升能力，剥离组装业务以求利润率稳定......................- 25 - 4.2 、产业链话语权由光芯片厂商掌握，高速芯片国产化迫在眉睫..............- 26 - 4.3 、回溯历史，头部厂商利润或将稳步提升，尾部厂商面临压力..............- 28 - 4.4 、海外龙头毛利有望逐步提升，国内厂商仍需积极研发高速光芯片......- 30 - 4.5、其他通信产业链公司.................................................................................- 36 - 4.6、投资建议.....................................................................................................- 37 - 5、风险提示............................................................................................................- 38 -
图 1、 全球光模块市场分类型市场规模及整体增速............................................- 6 - 图 2、 finisar 光模块的内部结构............................................................................- 7 - 图 3、 光模块的组成...............................................................................................- 7 - 图 4、 光模块成本拆分...........................................................................................- 7 - 图 5、 光模块及光、电芯片国产化程度 ...............................................................- 7 - 图 6、 全球有源光器件市场份额（2016 年）.......................................................- 8 - 图 7、 全球无源光器件市场份额（2016 年）.......................................................- 8 - 图 8、 国内电信侧光模块市场规模 .......................................................................- 8 - 图 9、 5G 宏基站建设节奏及资本开支..................................................................- 9 - 图 10、 光模块的不同封装方法...........................................................................- 12 - 图 11、 通信网络架构及所用到的光器件类型....................................................- 13 - 图 12、 PON 网络结构..........................................................................................- 14 - 图 13、 华为 OLT 设备..........................................................................................- 14 - 图 14、 三大运营商城域网演进历史，逐渐 IP 化、宽带化..............................- 16 - 图 15、 华为 PTN 设备..........................................................................................- 17 - 图 16、 5G 无线接入侧网络架构 .........................................................................- 19 - 图 17、 5G 前传典型方案 .....................................................................................- 20 - 图 18、 III/V-Si 异质集成系统加工方法..............................................................- 23 - 图 19、 2011-24 年平均每 Gbps 价格及其增速...................................................- 24 - 图 20、 全球光器件市场份额（2017 年）
..........................................................- 26 - 图 21、 全球光器件市场份额（2018 年）
..........................................................- 26 - 图 22、 光模块产业链及相应公司 .......................................................................- 27 - 图 23、 2010-19 年全球电信用&数通用光模块市场规模及增速......................- 28 -
图 24、 Finisar/Lumentum 近年光通信业务收入以及毛利率
............................ .- 28 - 图 25、 光迅&新易盛&华工正源近年光通信业务收入以及毛利率 .................- 29 -图 26、 昂纳科技&太辰光近年光通信业务收入以及毛利率 ............................- 29 -图 27、 Finisar 近年光器件全球市场份额...........................................................- 31 - 图 28、 Finisar 与其他厂商生产能力对比...........................................................- 32 - 图 29、 Finisar 近年分业务收入以及毛利率、净利率 .......................................- 32 - 图 30、 Finisar 近年研发、销售、管理费用率 ...................................................- 33 - 图 31、 Lumentum 近年收入以及毛利率、净利率.............................................- 33 - 图 32、 Lumentum 近年分业务收入以及毛利率.................................................- 34 - 图 33、 全球 VCSEL 市场份额（2018 年）........................................................- 34 - 图 34、 全球 VCSEL 市场份额（2024 年）........................................................- 34 - 图 35、 华工科技光电器件产品收入、毛利率以及收入占比............................- 35 - 图 36、 昂纳科技分业务收入及毛利率 ...............................................................- 36 - 图 37、 中兴通讯近几年分业务收入以及整体增速............................................- 36 - 图 38、 中兴通讯近几年分业务毛利率 ...............................................................- 36 - 图 39、 长飞光纤光缆近几年收入、净利润以及增速........................................- 37 - 图 40、 长飞光纤光缆近几年毛利率、经营利润率以及净利润率....................- 37 -
表 1、 5G 前中回传所用光模块典型技术方案......................................................- 9 - 表 2、 TOSA 不同产品类型对比.......................................................................