下面是小编为大家整理的美国能源业：与East,Daley谈话纪要,供大家参考。
G l o b al R e sear c h
19
May
2020
US
E n e r gy
Trans cr i pt
f r om
F i r e s i d e
C h at
wi th
E as t
Dal e y
Hi g h li g h ts fro m
F ire s i d e
C ha t
wi th E as t
D e l ay
Te am
W e
c on ti nu ed
our
2020
F i res i d e
c h at
s eri es
w i th
th e
Eas t
Dal ey
team,
to
rev iew
th e s tate
o f
th e
po s t
NO - PEC
w o rl d an d n ear
term
ou tl ook fo r o il
& g as
produ c ti on an d t h e mi d s tream
s ec t or. Du ri ng t h e
c al l , Ea s t
Dal ey
s h ared
th ei r v i e w s
on th e
market
b a l an c e, rec en t
p ri ce
v o latility ,
s hu t
i n s ,
a nd
rel ati ve
w i nn ers
i n
th e
c u rren t
en v i ron men t . Tran s c ri p t
o f
th e
c al l
s tarts
on p ag e
3. O u t l oo k o n
S t o r a g e
& I mpa ct
f r o m
S hu t - ins E a s t
D a l ey
di s cus s e d i t s
v i e w s
on s t or a ge
a nd how i t s
out l ook ha s
c hange d due
t o a ll th e
rec en t
s hu t - i n s
t h at
w e
h ave
s een .
Th i s
c omp ares
to
M i d-Ap ril
w h ere
th ere
w as s o me
c on c ern
th at
s to rag e
c ap ac ity
c ou l d fi ll , w h i c h w as
po ss i b l y
on e
o f
th e
reas on s
fo r th e
s tro ng mo v es
i n p ri c i ng. Eas t
Dal ey
d i s c u ss ed
th e
i mp ac t
o f
rec en t
s hu t
i n s
on th e M i d s tream
s p ace
an d th ey
s ee
t h e
l arg es t
produ c ti on d ec li n e s
i n th e
Po w d er
R i v er
Bas i n ( down
47% )
a nd
Ba kk e n
( do w n
33% )
f oll o w e d
by
t he
D J
( down
10% )
a nd
P e rm i a n ( down 8% ) . C ap e x R e du ct i o ns
& P r o j e ct s
C o m i n g
O n li n e
Des p ite
s i gn i f i c an t
c ap ex
c u ts
ac ro ss
th e
energ y
s ec to r, Eas t
Dal ey
s ai d s om e
pro j ec t s are
es s en ti al
i f
as s o c iated
g a s
produ c ti on
d ec li n es
an d
th ere
i s
a
n eed
to
dr ill
i n
g a s b as i n s .
They
h i gh li gh te d
th e
No rth eas t
i n
p arti c u l ar.
They
b el i eve
th at
i f
o il
pr i c es c on ti nu e
to
s tay
at
d ep res s ed
le ve ls
in
a sso c ia t e d g a s
b asin s,
mor e
g a s
is
go in g t o b e n eed ed
fr om t h e
No rth ea s t.
I f
5-10 Bc f /d of
i nc r e m e nt a l
na t ur a l
ga s
s upp l y
i s
ne e de d fro m
th e
NE,
Eas t
Dal ey
no t ed
th at
ex p an s i on s
o f
p i p e li n es
li ke
M oun tai n
Val l ey , Atl an ti c
Co as t
an d o th er
s mal l
ex pa ns i on s
w oul d be
r e qui r e d t o m ov e
t he
ga s
out of th e
b as i n.
Add i ti on al l y ,
Eas t
Dal ey
rev i s ed
th e i r
c ap ex
ex p ec t ati on s
h i gh er
f or
‘ 22- ‘ 24 fo r n ames
w i th
g as
ex po s u re
li k e
M PL X , W M B
an d K M I
( fo r ‘ 23- ‘ 24 ) , w h il e
th ey
rev i s e d l o w er
c ap ex
es t i mates
fo r mi d s tr eam
n ames
w i th
G &P
ex po s u re
to
o il
b as i n s , li ke
DCP, CEQ P,
ET,
NS , OK E,
PAA,
TR G P
an d W ES.
M i ds t r eam R a tes
R el i ef Eas t
Dal ey
al s o d i s c u ss ed
E&Ps
attemp ti ng to
s eek
rate
rel ief
f rom th e
mi d s tream
s ec to r as
th ey
n av i g at e
th rough th ei r c h al l en g es
an d i f
i t
w ou l d n eed
to
take
th e
E &Ps
fi li ng fo r b an krup tc y
to
do th at.
They
b el i eve
i n th e
b as i n s
w i th
h i gh er
c omp eti ti on li ke
th e Permi an ,
t h ere
c ou l d
b e
a
po ss i b ility
fo r
a
rate
red u c ti on,
bu t
on l y
i n
t h e
c as e
o f b an krup tc y .
H o w ev er,
i n
b as i n s
li ke
t h e
DJ
w h ere
th e re
i s
l o w er
c omp eti ti on,
re - c on trac ti ng
mi gh t
b e
mo re
c h al l en g i ng
th an
i n
t h e
Per mi an .
No tabl y ,
Eas t
Dal ey fl ag g e d W ES,
EPD,
an d ENL C
as
h av i ng ab o ve
av g G &P
rates
i n th e
Permi an . P o t e n t i a l
U p si d e
f r o m
G as
B a si ns
I f
g as
p ri c es
i n crease
s ub s tan t i al l y
o v er
t he
ne x t
12 mont hs , E a s t
D a l ey
doe s
not s ee
t h e G reen
R i v er
i n W y o mi ng an d th e
Pi c ean ce
gro w i ng s i gn i fi c an tl y ; ho w ev er,
th ey
no ted th at
w i th
n atu r al
g as
pr i c es
b e tw een
$2.50/ MM B tu
an d $3/ MM B t u th ere
i s
a
po ten ti a l fo r th o s e
b as i n s
to
g et
mo re
ac ti v ity
th an
es s en ti al l y
th e
z ero
ri g s
t h ere
to d ay . O n l y
a few
yea rs
ag o w i th
p ri c es
betw een
$2.75
an d
$3.25,
th e
G reen
R i v er
w as
at
doub l e d i g i t
r i g s
a nd t h e
Pi c ean ce
w as
c l o s e
to
doub l e
d i g i t
ri g s . Add i ti on al l y , Eas t
Dal ey
do es no t
s ee
materi al
up s i d e
to
an y
o f
th e
m i d s tream
n ames
i n
th e
B arn ett,
bu t
no tes
a retu rn
o f
ac ti v ity
i s
prob a b l e
i n
p l ac es
li ke
t h e
W es tern
R o c ki es .
I n
th ei r
v iew ,
th e M arcel l u s
an d Hay n es v ill e
are
go i ng to
b e
th e
b i gg e s t
w i nn ers
l ong er
term.
They
al s o not e d
s om e
i m pa c t
on
pow e r
de m a nd
( 2- 3Bc f /d )
fro m
c o al
s w itc h i ng
at
g as
p ri ce
o f
$2.25-$3.25/ MM Bt u. Rep l ay
D i al - I ns :
US
To ll
F ree:
+1
888-286-8010
/
I nt e r na t i ona l :
+1
617-801-6888
/ P a ss c ode : 66420535 Shneur
Z.
Ger s h uni , C FA
A na l ys t s hne ur .ge r s huni @ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
3974
Ll oyd
Byr ne
A na l ys t ll oyd.byrne @ ubs . com
+1 -212-713
9701
St even
Fis her , C F A A na l ys t s t eve n.f i s he r @ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
8634
A ga
Zm i gro dzka , C FA
A na l ys t a gni e s zk a .zm igro dzk a @ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
3014
M i che ll e
Kenel , C FA Assoc i a t e
An a l y st mi che ll e .k e ne l @ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
4896
Willi am
A t ches on A na l ys t w illi a m .a t che s on @ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
3906
www .u b s.co m / i nvestm ent r esea r ch
Th i s
rep o rt
h as
b een
p repared
b y
UB S
Se c u ri ti es
LLC .
ANALYS T
C E R T I F IC AT I O N
AND
R E Q UI R E D
DIS C L O S UR E S
B E G I N
O N PA G E
20 .
UB S
do es
an d s eeks
to
do
bu s i n es s
w i th
c omp an i es
c o v ered
i n i ts
res earc h r ep o rts .
As
a
re s u l t , i n v es t o rs
s hou l d b e aw are
th at
th e
fi rm may
h ave
a
c on fl i c t
o f
i n teres t
th at
c ou l d affec t
th e
ob j ec ti v ity
o f
t h i s
rep o rt.
I n ve s to rs
s hou l d c on s i d er
th i s rep o rt
as
on l y
a
s i ng l e
fac to r i n maki ng th ei r i n v es tmen t
d ec i s i on. Ener gy
Am er i cas
Equit ies
M o d e ra to rs :
Sh n eu r
Ger s huni,
M i d s t r eam /M L P
&
N atur al
G as
An al y s t
at
U B S
L l oy d
By r ne ,
N or t h
Am e r i c a n
E x plor a t i on
&
P r oduc t i on
An a l y s t
a t
U B S S t e v e n
F i s he r,
M a c hin e r y
a nd
E ngi ne e r i ng
&
Cons t r uc t i on
A na l y s t
a t
U B S Sp eaker s :
M at t
L ewi s ,
Se nior
D i r ec t or
o f
Eq u i t y
at
Eas t
D aley
Cap i t al
M el i ss a
Sau rborn,
Sen i or
C ommod it y
An al y s t
at
Eas t
D aley
Cap i t al Zac k
V an
Ev er e n,
Cap i t al
M ar ket s
An a l y s t
at
Eas t
D a l ey
Sp eaker
B i o s :
M a tt
L e wi s :
A s
S e nior
D i r e c t or
of
E qui t y
a t
Eas t
D aley
Cap i t al,
M at t
s p ec i al i z es
i n a na l yz i ng
n a t ur a l
ga s
a nd
oi l
f unda m e nt a l s
i nc l ud i ng
s uppl y ,
de m a nd,
pi pe li n e f l ow s ,
a nd
f i nanc i a l s
a t
t he
a ss e t
l e v e l .
T hi s
i nc lude s
r e s ea r c hing
s pe c i f i c
ga t he r i ng a nd
pr oc e ss i ng
s y s t e m s
a nd
pi pe li ne s
a nd
unde r s t a nding
t he
c ont r a c t s
be hind t he m
a s
w e ll
a s
t he
f l ow
v olum e s
a nd
t hr oughput s
of
t he s e
s y s t e m s .
I n
a ddi t i on, he
unde r s t a nd s
t he
f i nanc i a l
s i de
of
a ss e t s ,
w hi c h
pa i r e d
w i t h
s uppl y
a nd
de m a nd f und am en t al s ,
dr ive
v er y
det ai led
r i s k
an d
up s id e
an aly s i s .
M at t
i s
on e
of
t h e f oundation al
t eam
m em b er s
at
Eas t
D ale y
Cap i t al
an d
br i ng s
a
weal t h
o f
ex p er t i s e i n
t he
a r ea s
o f
na t ur a l
ga s
a nd
c r ude
oi l
m a rk e t
dyna m i c s ,
n a t ur a l
ga s
pi pe li ne c ont r a c t s
a nd
i nf r a s t r uc t ur e
a nd
FE RC
P r oc e ss
a nd
Re gul a t i on.
M a tt
g ra du a ted
fro m
th e
U n i v e rs i ty
o f
D e n v e r
w i th
a
M a s ter
o f
A rt s
d e g re e
i n G lobal
F i nanc e ,
T r a de
a nd
E c onom i c
I nt e gr a t i on,
a
progr a m
t ha t
f oc use s
on
t h e c ompl e x
c ha n ge s
i n
t he
g lobal
e c onom y ,
i nc l uding
t h e
e m e rging
p a tt e r ns
of f i nanc i a l ,
t r a de
a nd
hum a n
c a pi t a l
f l ow s
a nd
t he i r
e ff e c t
on
s e c t or s
a nd
e c onom i e s
M el i ss a
Sau r b o r n
i s
a
Sen ior
C ommod i t y
An al y s t
at
Eas t
D aley
Cap it al ,
wh er e
s h e f oc use s
pr i m a r il y
on
oi l
&
ga s
pr oduc t i on
m odeli ng
a nd
c onne c t i ng
ups t r ea m dyna m i c s
t o
m i ds t r ea m
pe r f orm a nc e .
P r i or
t o
E a s t
D a l e y ,
M s .
S a urborn
s pe nt
ov e r a
de c a de
i n
t h e
ups t r ea m
s e c t or,
w ork i ng
a s
a
ge ologi s t
f or
E xx onM obi l ,
S a m s on Re s our c e s ,
a nd
One E ne rg y
P a r t ne r s ,
s pe c i a li z i ng
i n
t he
a c qui s i t i on
a nd de v e l opm e nt
o f
f i e l ds
i n
t he
m a j or
ons hor e
U . S .
ba s i n s
( P e rm i a n,
W illi s t on,
P ow de r R ive r,
e t
a l . ) .
S he
hol ds
a
M . S .
i n
Bus i ne ss
A na l y t i c s
f rom
t he
U ni v e r s i t y
of
D e nv e r, a
M .A.
i n
E a r t h
&
E nv i ronm e nt a l
S c i e nc e s
f rom
C olumbi a
U ni v e r s i t y ,
a nd
a
B. S .
i n M a th e ma ti c s
fro m
...
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