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G l o b al R e sear c h
20
May
2020
A us tr al i an
H e al th c ar e
S ec tor
H e alth car e
i n
a
C O VI D - 19
a ff ec t ed
wor ld
T h e
sh o r t -
and
l o n g e r- te rm
i mp li c a ti o ns
f o r
h e a l th c a re
K ey
c on s i d erati on s
i n a ss es s i ng th e
ou tl ook f or li s ted
Au s trali an
h eal th c are
s to cks
i n a COV ID -19 affected
w o rl d i n c l ud e:
1 )
The
ti me
frame
b ei ng a ss es s e d –
s hor t
v s
l on ge r term;
2 )
Natu re
o f
th e
p an d em i c
ac ro ss
reg i on s
( e. g. AUS
v s
U S)
an d c omp an y
ex po s u re to
th es e
marke ts ; 3 )
Natu re
o f
h eal th c are
fu nd i ng an d ho w
th i s
mi gh t
th i s
c h an g e ; 4 ) Heal th c are
s erv i ce
d el i v ery
an d
th e
i mp ac t
o f
c on s um er/ c li n i c i an
b e h av i our
on u t ili sa t io n; 5 )
Im p lic a ti on s
fo r c o s ts
( e. g. n ew
pro c es s es /pro to c o l s ) . W e
ad d res s
eac h o f th es e
i ss u es
as
t h ey
relate
to
s to cks
und er
c o v erag e.
No
" p l ayb oo k " ,
w e
fa ct o r
i n
i ndu st r y
f ee dba ck
and
c o mpany - sp e ci f i c
i ssu e s
W e
ac kno w l ed g e
th at
th ere
i s
no " p l ay book "
to
h el p as s es s
th e
i mp ac t
o f
COV I D -19 on our s to cks
und er
c o v erag e.
W e
h ave
rev i e w ed
th e
i mp ac t
du ri ng th e
G F C
bu t
read - th rough
i s
limi t ed ;
as
i s
th e
S AR S
ou tb reak
fro m
2003.
Th erefo re
our
framew ork
fo r an al y s i ng
th e
i mp ac t
on
s to cks
takes
i n to
c on s i d erati on
fe ed b ac k
fro m
a
r a nge
of i nd us t r y
di s cus s i on s
a nd
ov e r l ay s
c om pany - s p ec i fi c
fac to rs
s u c h
as
reg i on a l
ex po s ur e an d s ou rc es
o f
rev en u es . D efen s i ven es s
al r ead y
p r i c ed i n ?
Ac ro ss
our
c o v erag e
un i v ers e,
few
s to cks
are
tradi ng
at
a
materi al
d i s c oun t
to
th e i r h i s to r i c al
PE
rel s
( v s
ASX 100
i ndu s tri al s ) .
Th ere
are
rati on al
reas on s
fo r
th i s
i n
th a t go v ern men ts
i n
mo s t
O ECD
c oun tri e s
are
s i gn i fi c an t
p ay ers
fo r
h eal t h c are
produ c t s / s erv i c es
an d
ar e
un li ke l y
to
r ei n
i n
s p e nd
( materi al l y )
du ri ng
a
h ea l th
c ri s i s
( fi s c al l y c ons t r a i ne d
budg ets
w ill
li ke l y
po s e
g reater
ri s k
to
o th er
areas
o f
s p en d
ou ts i d e
o f h eal th care) .
I n
ad d i ti on,
popu lati on s
w ill
c on ti nu e
to
ag e
an d
n ew
treatmen ts / m oda li t i e s
w ill
e m e r ge , f os t e r i ng ongo i ng gro w t h i n ut ili s a t i on. S t o ck
i mp li ca t i o n s?
I n our v i e w , he a l t hc a re
remai n s
a
d efen s i ve
s ec to r. Ho w ev er , w e
b el i eve
ex p ec tation s may
b e
o v erl y
op ti mi s ti c
i n
th e
rate
o f
rec o v ery
i n
v o l u mes / s erv i c es
b ac k
to
p rev i ou s le vels.
A c ro ss
s ub- s ec to rs ,
an d
taki ng
i n to
acc oun t
a
ran g e
o f
qu al i tati v e/ qu an ti tati ve fac to rs ,
our
key
s to c k
p referen c es
i n c l ud e
CSL
an d
EB O ,
fo ll o w ed
b y
R M D,
R HC
an d ANN.
W e
rema i n
mo re
c au ti ou s
on
d i ag no s t i c
s erv i ce
pro v i d ers
i n
g en eral
(SHL)
an d m a i nt a i n S e ll
r a t i ngs
on COH
a nd S I G , pr e dom i na nt l y
on va l ua t i on groun ds . Sau l
Had assi n
A na l ys t s a ul .hada ss i n@ ubs .com
+ 61-2-9324
3574
A nna
M iln e Assoc i a t e
An a l y st a nna .mil ne @ ubs .com
+ 61-2-9324
2147
K ar yn
C ao Assoc i a t e
An a l y st k a r yn.ca o@ ubs.c om
+ 61-2-9324
2998
www .u b s.co m / i nvestm ent r esea r ch
Th i s
rep o rt
h as
b een
p rep are d b y
UB S
Sec u ri ti es
Au s trali a
L td .
A N A L YS T
C E R T I F IC A T I O N
A N D
R E Q UI R ED
DI SC L O SUR ES BEGI N O N
P AGE
25 .
UB S
do e s
an d s eeks
to
do bu s i n es s
w i t h c omp an i es
c o v ered
i n i ts
re s earc h r ep o rts . As
a
res u l t,
i n v es t o rs
s hou l d b e aw are
th at
th e
fi rm may
h ave
a
c on fl i c t
o f
i n teres t
th at
c ou l d affec t
th e
ob j ec ti v ity
o f
t h i s
rep o rt.
I n ve s to rs
s hou l d c on s i d er
th i s rep o rt
as
on l y
a
s i ng l e
fac to r i n maki ng th ei r i n v es tmen t
d ec i s i on. Heal t h car e
Au stra li a
Equit ies
Cont e n t s
H ealt hc ar e
in
a
CO VID - 19
af f ec t ed w orld
............................. 4
Ti m e
f r am e
–
s hor t
t e rm v s . l ong t e rm m a tt e r s
............................................ 5 Re gi on a l
e x po s ur e
–
di ff e r e nc e s
b a s e d on w ho pa y s
.................................... 5 H eal t h c ar e
ex p en d i t ur e
–
G F C
a
( l es s
t h a n p er f ec t )
pr e c e d e nt
...................... 6 Au s t r al i a
–
r e li a nt
on gov e rnm e n t
f un di ng
.................................................. 7 US
–
co mm e r cia l
i n s ur a n ce
is
k e y
.............................................................. 10 E urop e / U K
–
w e l fa re
s ta t e s
....................................................................... 12 H eal t h c ar e
s e r v i c e
d e l ive r y
–
co n s um e r/ cl i n i cia n b e h a vio ur
......................... 13 St oc k view s
............................................................... 16
CS L
- P T
A$342; B UY
................................................................................ 16 R HC
- P T
A$63.20; N E U T RA L
.................................................................... 17 R MD - P T
US $174 ( A$26.75 ) ; NE UT R AL
.................................................... 18 COH
- P T
A$150; SE LL
.............................................................................. 19 S HL
- P T
A$23.10; SE LL
............................................................................. 20 ANN
- P T
A$31.00; N E U T RA L
.................................................................... 21 E BO
- P T
N Z $27.20; BU Y
........................................................................... 22 S I G
- P T
A$0.53; SE LL
............................................................................... 23 Sau l
Had assi n
A na l ys t s a ul .hada ss i n@ ubs .com
+ 61-2-9324
3574
A nna
M iln e Assoc i a t e
An a l y st a nna .mil ne @ ubs .com
+ 61-2-9324
2147
K ar yn
C ao Assoc i a t e
An a l y st k a r yn.ca o@ ubs.c om
+ 61-2-9324
2998
A us t r al ian
H eal t hc ar e
Sec t or
U BS
R es earc h THESI S
M AP
M O ST
F AV O R ED
L EAST
F AV O R E D
CSL ,
EB O S
S H L ,
COH ,
S IG
PI VO TAL
Q UESTI O NS
Q:
W h at d o es
h ealt h c ar e
l oo k li ke
i n
a
C O V I D - 19
aff ec t e d
w o r l d ?
The
key
c on s i d erati on s
i n as s e ss i ng th e
ou tl ook fo r li s ted
Au s trali an
h ea l th c are
s to cks
i n a
COV I D -19 affected
w o rl d
i n c l ud e:
1 )
The
ti me
frame
b e i ng
a ss es s ed
–
s ho rt
v s
l ong er
term;
2 )
Natu r e
o f
th e p an d em i c
ac ro ss
reg i on s
( e. g.
AUS
v s
US)
a nd
c omp an y
ex po s u re
to
th e s e
markets ;
3 )
Natu re
o f h eal th c are
fu nd i ng –
w ho are
th e
ke y
p ay ers
an d ho w
mi gh t
fu nd i ng c h an g e ; 4 )
Heal th c are
s erv i ce d el i v ery
an d th e
i mp ac t
o f
c on s u mer / c li n i c i a n b eh av i our
on
u ti li s ati on; 5 )
I mp li c ati on s
fo r
c o s ts
( e. g. ne w
pr oc e ss e s /pr ot oc ol s
t o m a nage
s oc i a l
d i s t a nc i ng, i nf ec t i ons ) . W e
a ddr e ss
eac h o f
t h es e
i ss u es
a s th ey
relate
to
our s to cks
und er
c o v erag e.
W HAT" S
PR I CED
I N?
L im ite d
long - t e r m
i mpa ct
b e i n g
p r ice d
i n .
Ac ro ss
our c o v erag e
un i v ers e , few s to cks
a r e
t r a d i ng a t
a materi al
d i s c oun t
to
th ei r h i s t o ri c al
PE
rel s
( v s
ASX 100 i ndu s tr i al s ) . Th ere
are
rati on al
rea s on s
fo r th i s
i n th at
go v ernme n ts
i n mo s t
O E CD
c oun tri e s
ar e
s i gn i fi c an t
p ay ers
fo r h eal th c are
produ c ts / se r v ic e s
a nd are
un li kel y
to
rei n
i n
s p en d
( materi al l y )
du ri ng
a
h eal th
c ri s i s
( fi s c al l y
c on s trai n ed
budg et s
w ill
li kel y po s e
g reater
ri s k to
o th er
area s
o f
s p en d ou t s i d e
o f
h eal th c ar e) . I n ad d i t i on, popu lati on s
w ill
c on ti nu e to
ag e
an d n ew
treatmen ts /mod a li t i e s
w ill
e m e r ge , f os t e r i ng ongo i ng gr ow t h i n ut ili s a t i on.
UB S
V I EW
H o w e v e r
a
r e t u r n
ba ck
t o
h i st o r i ca l
l e v e l s
i s
li k e l y
t o
b e
p r o t r a ct e d :
I n
our
v iew ,
h eal th c ar e remai n s
a
d efen s i ve
s ec to r. H o w ev er,
w e
b el i eve
ex p ec tation s
may
b e
o v er l y
op ti mi s ti c
i n th e
rate
o f rec o v ery
i n
v o l u mes / s erv i c es
b ac k
to
p rev i ou s
l ev el s .
Ac ro ss
s ub- s ec t or s ,
a nd
t a k i ng
i nt o
acc ount
a ran g e
o f
qu al i t ati v e/ qu a n ti tat i ve
fac to rs
( ex h i b i t
b el o w ) ,
our
key
s to c k
p referen c es
i n c l ud e
CSL
an d EB O , f o ll o w ed
b y
R M D , R HC
an d ANN.
W e
remai n mo re
c au ti ou s
on d i a gno s ti c
s erv i ce
pro v i d ers
i n g en eral
(SHL)
a nd mai n tai n Sel l
rati ng s
on COH
an d SI G , p red o mi n a n tl y
on v al u ati on ground s .
EV I DENCE
L i m i t ed
r ead - t h r o u g h
f r o m
G F C ,
w e
r un
t h r o u g h
c o n si d e r a t i o ns
ab o v e
and
r e a ch
g e n e r a l co n cl u si o ns :
W e
ac kno w l ed g e
th at
th ere
i s
no " p l ay book "
to
h el p as s es s
th e
i mp ac t
o f
COV I D -19 on...
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